Tuesday, April 9, 2013

A World Without Jobs

Work spares us from three evils: boredom, vice, and need. Voltaire

Imagine a world that has the resources to provide for everyone's needs and most of their desires BUT has a 75% unemployment rate.

More important than imagining it - prepare for it.

In some industrial sectors, it is already determined: Agricultural output will continue to increase while global ag jobs decrease. Manufacturing output will continue to increase while global manufacturing jobs decrease.

Don't believe manufacturing decreased jobs? look at the Chinese employment below (btw, China, the EU and the USA all manufacture about the same value of stuff - it's just in the developed world we think we don't because it takes so few people to do so).

Other changes are almost upon us.

How long will the 4.2 million transportation jobs last with the Google Car now having logged more than 500,000 miles without an accident?

How are the 14.4 million retail trade jobs going to grow with constant growth of online sales? sales that will eventually be filled by robotic warehouses and robotic trucks.

Education job growth with a booming internet learning environment? Military job growth with robotics and a world that has become one large market? 

Go down the list and figure out where the jobs aren't going to decrease.

Sector          Employment
State and local government  19.5
Professional and business services  16.7
Health care and social assistance  16.4
Retail trade  14.4
Leisure and hospitality  13.0
Manufacturing  11.5
Nonagriculture self-employed 8.9
Financial activities  7.6
Other services  6.0
Construction  5.5
Wholesale trade  5.5
Transportation and warehousing  4.2
Educational services  3.1
Federal government  3.0
Information  2.7
Agriculture wage and salary  1.3
Agriculture self-employed 0.9
Mining  0.7
Utilities  0.6
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - 2010 US Employment)

Health care is the only obvious growth area for the next decade. But it is clear that technology will address that as well.

Bring back the jobs?....it could BE different.

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